Afrimat wants our political leadership to make ‘sound economic decisions’ and collaborate more actively with the private sector, writes the author. Picture: (Supplied/Afrimat)

North of the Limpopo in Zimbabwe lies a booming cement market. Or so it seems. “Cement sales volumes in Zimbabwe increased by 22%,” read an operating update in September from one of our local producers.

A few weeks later, in November, the government in Harare lifted import controls and a 30% surcharge on cement as rapidly growing demand, clinker shortages and energy cuts prompted a quick policy reversal.

Zimbabwean cement prices shot up nearly 40% in 2025 — compared with 14% in South Africa according to Stats SA — with demand largely met by imports from Zambia.

The Zimbabwean market for cement is slightly less than 2-million tonnes, and the nation has the capacity to produce nearly 3-million tonnes. This compares to South Africa’s installed capacity of over 20-million tonnes.

The Zimbabwean case, and planned capacity expansions there and across Southern Africa, may further complicate and give a regional flavour to chronic overcapacity in the cement market.

The prospect of these changes and how the state may wish to respond were placed in sharp focus by a recent Sens announcement from South African cement player Afrimat, expressing the hope that our political leadership will make “sound economic decisions” and collaborate more actively with the private sector, as well as agitating for “fair trade protections”.

What might have been meant? A discussion on protection of the domestic cement sector involves not only discussions about a combination of defensive instruments but consideration of demand conditions.

According to data issued by StatsSA this week, building plans passed by larger municipalities, a leading indicator of future construction activities and demand for cement, show that approvals in Gauteng for 2025 were R4bn lower than the comparable 2024 figure. Declines were also observed in the North West, Mpumalanga and the Northern Cape. Only in the Eastern Cape (18.8%) and the Western Cape (6.8%) was some improvement registered.

Any state intervention is more complicated than just agitation for a protective tariff. The choice of instrument matters too. South Africa’s concessions to the World Trade Organisation mean we cannot raise customs duties beyond the 0% bound rate.

The decline in plans approved was seen across residential and nonresidential buildings, with only renovation activity registering marginal improvement. If demand is declining and imports are taking a larger share of the narrowing pie, “designation” (under the new procurement legislation) of local materials on public sector projects becomes important.

Regional dynamics complicate the picture further. Zambia’s annual production capacity of more than 5-million tonnes, and planned capacity expansions in Zimbabwe by the likes of Huaxin (which bought Natal Portland Cement in 2023), mean regional surpluses are likely absent new demand or better co-ordination and planning of regional order books.

Any state intervention is more complicated than just agitation for a protective tariff. The choice of instrument matters too. South Africa’s concessions to the World Trade Organisation mean we cannot raise customs duties beyond the 0% bound rate.

That leaves only trade remedies — anti-dumping, safeguard or anti-subsidy measures and import controls — as the tools to respond to import competition. Dumping measures are exporter and country specific, while safeguards may have more universal application. So, the origin of the import competition matters too.

Dumping duties on Pakistani imports, which were renewed in 2022 for a further five years, are up for review over the next few months. The domestic industry will need to lead the collation of evidence needed for this review and any other applications.

Meanwhile, inventories pile up, not just in the region but in Asia too. Nearly a fifth of Vietnamese cement inventory remains unsold, yet the impulse to expand kiln capacity continues.

“Stoppage of expansion is incipient ruin,” wrote Friedrich Engels in the late 1880s. The inevitable result of such unplanned and unco-ordinated expansion, Engels observed, was “a glut which finds no vent everywhere, because the same process is taking place in all other (national) industries”.

The crisis no longer brews only in faraway lands. It is bubbling closer to home.

• Cawe is chief commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission. He writes in his personal capacity.